Wednesday’s best racing comes from Gosford on New South Wales’ Central Coast while the pick of the Victorian action is at Sandown. Mitchell Lamb from tab.com.au has studied the form and delivered his best tips below.
A beautiful type of horse by Exceed And Excel out of a very talented multiple stakes-winning daughter of Lonhro, Marble has made an encouraging start to his career and this campaign he could go to another level.
He accounted for the ill-fated Songlike, who had above average ability, on debut at Hawkesbury, was spelled, before coming back to take on older horses at Warwick Farm. He never had much go his way in that run, but made amends for that by going back to Hawkesbury and defeating older types before being tipped out again.
He’s trialled twice to have him ready for this prep, winning the first, and zooming up late in the second without much pressure being applied. They were both good looking efforts and he appeared to have strengthened a bit physically from his earlier starts.
Marble is taking on all ages again now, but he’s well equipped to contend with that as an autumn three-year-old. There’ll be a heap of speed on here but he’s got enough early pace to take up a position midfield, or better if needed, and be within a few lengths when they turn for home. If he’s that close, he’ll be very strong late.
He’s a colt with some nice upside and most of these have found their level in life. He looks a good bet on a tricky card.
AROUND THE GROUNDS
Improvise was tested in some pretty handy company in her spring three-year-old campaign, which culminated in a decent effort in the Wakeful Stakes behind current Australian Oaks favourite Luvaluva.
She’s a filly that is going to be best over a mile, at least, which she gets to here. But her first up effort over the 1300 metres at Warwick Farm a fortnight ago was a quality one with a view to the rest of her campaign. In a slowly-run race, she got a fair way back and couldn’t obtain much room after they straightened; when she was finally able to get some space and balance up at the 150m mark, she hit the line nicely when the race was over.
Expect Blake Shinn to possibly follow Cervinia, the likely leader in the race, over from barrier 7; with that mare drawn directly inside, Shinn may attempt to take a sit behind her – that can possibly allow him to dictate to the other two threats in the race in stable-mate Savacool and Kris Lees’ filly Chilly Cha Cha. If he can achieve that, Improvise may well prove very hard to get past late.
He was a decent price on debut, but I thought Rossman did a stellar job when working home stylishly behind Godolphin’s Viking Raid and one of his main rivals here in the Lindsay Park-trained Olympic Lad.
The son of Mossman was bred by his trainer David Brideoake, who sent his former handy mare Biancon Rose to the one time Australian Guineas winner, and it looks like they’ve got a colt who might eventually become a miler with some decent upside.
Rossman might not get as far back as he did on debut at Bendigo, especially after drawing barrier 3, and obviously Ryan Maloney would be getting to know him well considering he rode him in the barrier trial prior to his first start, as well as that race.
There are no stars amongst the opposition here and some of the others, including Olympic Lad, have had a few more chances to break through than Rossman. He can go very close here with some natural improvement at double figure odds.
OVER THE ODDS
This a nice field of maidens lining up over the mile here, but it’s John Thompson’s filly, The Promise, who looks a big chance at getting the right run; she appears to be over the odds at that current quote.
The daughter of champion sire Snitzel, from the family of Cox Plate winner Shamus Award, has had the two runs back this time in. They were just her second and third career starts, and she’s been runner-up in both. The first she got well out of her ground at Goulburn, before finishing strongly behind the well-bred Legendofoz. She then headed to Newcastle where she led them up after Hugh Bowman decided to go forward from a wide gate, and she stuck on very well behind a smart looking type in Red Currant.
She gets back to her own age now for this, moves up to the 1600m, which will suit her further, and draws perfectly to be able to get a gun run in transit. I expect her to be right in the thick of this.
Leg 1 – 2,3,7
Leg 2 – 6
Leg 3 – 2,3,4,5,7,8,9
Leg 4 – 2,3
($100 = 238.1%)
Leg 1 – 5,6,7
Leg 2 – 1,5
Leg 3 – 2,3,4,5,6,7,8,11
Leg 4 – 6,12,14
($100 = 69.44%)