TAB Betting blog Prepare for Pure Elation at Warwick Farm

Horse Racing


After an awesome day’s racing at Rosehill Gardens for the Golden Slipper, attention turns to Warwick Farm in Sydney where the form from that very race has tab.com.au form analyst Mitchell Lamb onto good thing. Meanwhile, the other key meeting comes at Sandown.

WEDNESDAY’S BEST

Warwick Farm Race 2 No.7 Pure Elation (Michael Walker) – $2.60

If she’d drawn a barrier here, Pure Elation would be odds on against this lot as she’s a juvenile with top-tier form coming back to a midweeker. She also has an edge, not just in class, but race experience on all of her rivals.

The Team Snowden-trained filly just ran second to a pretty handy one in Estijaab – who just won a little race called the Golden Slipper. That’s a decent reference for this, and she genuinely made Estijaab work for that victory; although, in fairness, you feel as though the winner would have pulled out whatever she needed to.

That gate is a concern as there looks to be plenty of speed inside her, and Michael Walker will need to be very careful the way he goes about things once they jump. It might be best if he just puts the foot down and looks to cross, and either leads or sits outside something, as she’ll be very fit and should find plenty at the end of 1100 metres.

A win would do her the world of good and she really should be too good if she can get that little bit of luck early.

AROUND THE GROUNDS

Warwick Farm Race 6 No.6 In Times Of War (Kerrin McEvoy) – $4

She’s been to the races 15 times and has started single figure odds on every occasion, so it’s little wonder plenty of punters won’t have In Times Of War as their pin-up betting commodity. Furthermore, she’s only won twice and has been a beaten favourite on five other occasions; plus she’s been runner-up an astonishing nine times, which just hurts a little more if you’ve been on her for the majority of them.

To be fair, she has run into a few high-quality types along the way, finishing second to the likes of Spright, Bonny O’Reilly, Memes, Diddums and Osborne Bulls – all of whom are stakes grade.

The daughter of Magic Millions winner Military Rose travels so well late into her races, for the most part. Unfortunately, she just hasn’t found enough under pressure late to have that race record looking a little better than what it stands at right now. Maybe that can change this prep, maybe not; but I really do think they’ve found a lovely race for her first up here and I loved the way she trialled recently when defeating Revenire, who came out and won earlier this week impressively.

In Times of War will go back from a wide draw; there’s plenty of speed engaged so that’s what you’d expect. But I just don’t want to see her lose touch with the leaders, as it might blunt her turn of foot late if she has to get off the bit early to chase.

For all the problems she’s caused for punters, In Times of War is still a very handy mare that has plenty of time left to improve on her winning strike rate. Let’s hope it starts with a win here.

Sandown (Hillside) Race 7 No.8 Euroman (Liam Riordan) (a3) – $8

A Sandown 2400-metre restricted midweeker isn’t normally the type of race I like to dive into for a tip, but Darren Weir’s Euroman is well and truly up to this grade and he looks a very backable price at his current quote.

The five-year-old won narrowly in similar grade three starts back at Ballarat over 2200m, before Weir took him to Morphettville for a 2035m event where he didn’t seemingly appreciate the drop back in trip. He then came back across the border for a 2500m race at Pakenham which looked suitable; unfortunately the race didn’t work out with Euroman having to sustain a long run around the outside of the entire field. He plugged a bit late to finish fourth in that race, some five lengths from eventual winner Choysa who’d made a mid-race move that proved a winning one.

Euroman stays at a similar trip now and should be able to settle into midfield from a good draw; he’ll get in well for this level of race after Liam Riordan’s 3kg claim and I expect him to bounce back and be right in the finish of this.

OVER THE ODDS

Warwick Farm Race 3 No.6 Thy Kingdom Come (Blake Shinn) – $10

After flashing some ability as a juvenile and spring three-year-old, Thy Kingdom Come was eventually gelded with the hope that he could live up to his potential prior to the start of his autumn three-year-old campaign.

It may well prove a smart move going on what we saw from him first up when he was an easy winner at Wyong. He never gave the older types a look-in there as Blake Shinn made his move approaching the turn and the race was essentially over from that point on.

Now the son of Lope De Vega comes to town, this time back against his own age, but comes up against some promising types including a half dozen from the Chris Waller stable. Most of Waller’s runners probably have Queensland Winter Carnival ambitions, as well as last start winners Discussions, Icon Of Dubai and Dissolution; it’s a great field for a midweek three year old event.

I’m not 100 percent certain what Thy Kingdom Come’s best trip is going to be, but it’s most likely in the mile- to mile-and-a-quarter range, and races like the Queensland Guineas and Sunshine Coast Guineas may well be on the radar. If that’s the case, he’ll have to be highly competitive in this and the double figure odds on offer look value to me even with some other smart ones lining up against him.

QUADDIE SELECTIONS

Warwick Farm

Leg 1 – 3,7

Leg 2 – 6,7

Leg 3 – 1,2,4,7,9,10,11,13

Leg 4 – 3,5,8,12,17

($100 = 62.5%)

Sandown (Hillside)

Leg 1 – 1,2,3,7,8,9,10

Leg 2 – 3,5,10,11

Leg 3 – 4,8,10

Leg 4 – 5,10

($100 = 59.52%)



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