TAB Betting Blog Don’t judge Handsome Thief on Adelaide effort

Horse Racing


The pick of the midweek racing action comes from Canterbury and Warrnambool, tab.com.au form analyst Mitchel Lamb bringing you the best betting options for a happy day’s punting.

WEDNESDAY’S BEST

Canterbury Race 2 No.9 Seasons (Tim Clark) – $2.50

It’s not unusual for Les Bridge to have a handy three-year-old filly in the stable and he might have another here in the form of Seasons. A daughter of Sebring, Seasons will be having just her second start at the same track, Canterbury, where she enjoyed an eye-catching debut over the same distance in December last year.

I’ll admit she’s come up a touch shorter than I thought she might, but that run behind Aeecee Tong De, coupled with a pair of recent trials where she was hard held to the line on both occasions, has got me excited to see her return to the track. I’ll cop the quote in the small field she lines up in here.

The one thing that I noticed in her latest trial at Randwick was that she was able to jump a lot cleaner from the gates, something that she improved on from both her debut and the first trial. So hopefully she does the same here, which will be important after she drew the inside gate; you’d want Tim Clark to be able to take advantage of that.

If Seasons jumps well, Clark will give her the run of the race and she’ll be too good for this lot.

AROUND THE GROUNDS

Canterbury Race 5 No.3 Seaway (Tye Angland) – $5.50

I’m not convinced the inside was the place to be on the new Kensington track when it made its long awaited debut a couple of weeks back. While it didn’t cost Seaway the win, considering Bezel had two lengths on him in the end, I don’t think he loved being there.

I still believe this colt is a stakes class galloper in the making. He has some kinks to iron out in his racing manners, but when he finally puts it all together I’m sure they’ll be able to find some decent races for him.

He comes back to Canterbury, the site of his two wins at his first campaign towards the end of last year; he’s bound to strip fitter again and despite again taking on older gallopers, he does drop a touch in grade from that. From the widish gate in the small field I’d like to see them ride him a touch quieter, which will allow him to finish off strongly.

His best is definitely better than these so let’s hope he gets the chance to prove that.

Warrnambool Race 8 No.4 Handsome Thief (Dean Yendall) – $4.80

You can definitely argue that Handsome Thief was a touch disappointing when a well-supported favourite a couple of Saturdays ago in Adelaide. Anytime a $2.15 chance misses a place with no clear and obvious excuses, it’s clearly upsetting for favourite backers.

But after a few looks at the race, I think there may have been a couple of underlying reasons why he didn’t perform up to the quote. For starters, the track that day was just a little shifty under foot and Handsome Thief is a horse who definitely appreciates a firmer surface, plus he’s not the world’s biggest galloper and I think he may have been a bit burdened under that 59 ½ kilo impost he was forced to carry.

Handsome Thief’s prior form was rock solid, he had easily won at Caulfield the start prior beating El Sicario, who finished in front of him at Morphettville, and Milwaukee, who was impressive at Flemington last Saturday carrying a big weight.

The son of Shamardal now drops to the limit for the Wangoom and it looks as though the track is going to be in good nick for the Warrnambool Carnival with no rain forecast. There appears to be early speed engaged here, which should allow Handsome Thief to find his feet in the second half of the field and work into the race when required.

Very keen he can make amends for that last start defeat; so don’t jump off just yet, punters.

OVER THE ODDS

Warrnambool Race 10 No.15 Florida Pearl (Craig Williams) – $12

Not sure if she’s a mare that’s had issues along the way or not, but Florida Pearl is now a rising 7yo who’s only had the 16 starts. Even though she didn’t race until she was four, she has been sparingly raced.

She hasn’t won a race since the 2016 Warrnambool Carnival when just having her fourth start, which meant, at the time, she began her career with three wins from four starts, so clearly there is some genuine ability there.

She’s run some good races since that day, including some close up efforts in town in better grade than what she faces here. So that’s a tick, as is the fact that she’s trained on the track by Symon Wilde who always seems to produce a couple of winners at his home carnival.

They may have set her for a big run here first up, down on the limit, from the inside draw and with Craig Williams booked to do the steering I think she’s a massive hope at double-figure odds.

QUADDIE SELECTIONS

Canterbury

Leg 1 – 1,2,3,4,5,7,8,9

Leg 2 – 3,9

Leg 3 – 1,3,4,11

Leg 4 – 4,6,7,11

($100 = 39.06%)

Warrnambool

Leg 1 – 1,8,14

Leg 2 – 2,7,14

Leg 3 – 3,6

Leg 4 – 4,6,7,9,14,15

($100 = 92.59%)



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