There is an abundance of racing on offer along the east coast on Saturday. Mitchell Lamb from tab.com.au has run the form and settled on his best bets below.
I know these offseason mares’ events can produce a few strange results, but this really does appear to be Divine Quality’s race to lose; it’s her turn to get back into the winner’s circle.
She’s still a lightly raced rising five-year-old with some upside and although she’s found one better than her in her two runs back this prep, she is in top form. Creativity, who she’s up against again here, just got the break on her first up after having the ideal run throughout. Second up, in listed grade against the males, Divine Quality just failed to run down the good ex-WA sprinter, First Among Equals.
Now back to mares grade, Divine Quality looks well in. She can be positioned a touch closer in the run and is set to hit her peak third up; if she handles the Valley circuit she’ll be winning.
AROUND THE GROUNDS
I’ve been with him his last three starts and although he’s only won one of those, I’ll continue to be with Seaway until I see something I don’t like.
I thought for certain Chris Waller was going to target a race like the Queensland Guineas with the son of Ocean Park. But with that race on next Saturday, you’d have to think that won’t be the case and, quite frankly, after seeing that Doomben track last week, Waller may have thought it might be best to avoid it. And who knows, maybe Waller saves Seaway for a crack at the Sunshine Coast Guineas a couple of weeks later and spells him up there afterwards?
Even with the step back in distance last start, he almost ran down Lisdoonvarna, in what was not the best judged ride from Blake Shinn. But now back to 1500 metres, in a race that really does appear to be devoid of speed, I expect Tye Angland, from a good draw, to have him one or two pairs back. Angland can sit in front of the logical danger and stablemate I Am Serious, and have Seaway ready to pounce after straightening.
A dual stakes winner, Calanda has always had a decent level of talent to match up with his outstanding physical aspects. I think the son of Snitzel has found himself in a very suitable group two event in the Moreton Cup on Saturday, one I have little doubt Team Snowden have targeted with him.
I love the fact that he’s had the two trials, both nice efforts in good company, to have him ready for the six furlongs of this race and we already know he’s a very capable fresh horse.
This is not a strong edition of the Moreton, which is really the old QTC Cup won by fantastic sprinters like Schillaci and Hareeba; there isn’t anything here with something close to the ability of that pair and Calanda is probably the best galloper in the race ability wise.
He looks well in under the set weights and penalties conditions of it. On top of that, he draws perfectly to get a gun run and looks perfectly placed to notch the biggest win of his career.
OVER THE ODDS
You could probably ask 10 different punters their opinion on who will win this listed race for fillies and mares and be given ten different responses, as the race does appear to be a bit of a lottery.
Luck in running will play a part, as will how the track is playing. But given that we could well get a surface with some give in it and the fact that there’s probably going to be plenty of speed on with the big field and some on speed types drawing wide, I think local mare River Racer is better than a 20-1 chance. That’s as long as the fence is ok late in the day and she can avoid any traffic issues.
She’s definitely a mare that, while competitive at this level on a good track, gets a big boost on a track that’s been affected by any rain. And with Sunshine Coast a Heavy 9 at this stage of the week, coupled with the presence of a meeting here on Friday as well, you’d like to think that would be the case.
River Racer was brave in the Bright Shadow at Doomben when trapped wide and well back throughout, was pushed even wider on the turn, and still had the audacity to finish off strongly behind Secret Trail. I thought that was a great effort.
If a few of those things go her way as described above, I reckon she’s in this for sure.
Leg 1 – 1,2,3,6,8,10,11
Leg 2 – 2,6
Leg 3 – 4,8,11
Leg 4 – 1,2,4,5,9,13
($100 = 39.68%)
Leg 1 – 2,5,7,8
Leg 2 – 3,11
Leg 3 – 5,7,9,12,13,18,20
Leg 4 – 1,2,7,10,15,22
($100 = 29.76%)